NFL Playoff Predictions (Conference Championships)

And then there were four…

After two weekends of the NFL playoffs, we’ve lost the last three Super Bowl champions (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Green Bay), a pair of teams led by rookie quarterbacks (Cincinnati, Houston), a pair of teams incapable of shaking postseason woes (Detroit, Atlanta) and the hottest media topic since Brett Favre showed his wang a Jets’ staffer (Denver). Now we’re left with four teams who have a combined 12 Super Bowl wins in 16 appearances, all vying for a chance to win another championship. Before we get into my picks, here’s a few interesting stats for you.

• The last time a team other than New England, Indianapolis, or Pittsburgh was the AFC representative to the Super Bowl was the 2002 season.
• If San Francisco (5-0) and Baltimore (1-0) meet in the Super Bowl, it will be the first time two teams with at least a 1-0 record met in the Super Bowl.
• This year marks the first time since 2009 that the Super Bowl will be played in an AFC team’s home stadium.
• Three of the four teams playing this weekend (Baltimore, New England, San Francisco) lost in their last conference title game appearances.
• The home team from the AFC Championship game has advanced to the Super Bowl every year since 2006.
• The Baltimore Ravens have been in three AFC title games, but have never played one at home.
• The New York Giants have never lost a NFC title game.

New York Giants (11-7) at San Francisco 49ers (14-3)

For as much talk as there’s been about Alex Smith’s late touchdown pass to Vernon Davis to propel the Niners to the NFC title game, I honestly think the most pivotal play of their win over the Saints came on the previous touchdown when Smith scampered 28 yards to give the 49ers a 29-24 lead. Without that run, I don’t think Smith leads the 49ers on the game winning touchdown. For a quarterback that only had four career rushing touchdowns prior to the game, Smith looked more like Steve Young than Saints fans were hoping to see. Yet despite all that…it’s hard not to look at the Giants and think Eli Manning is going to lead them on a similar Super Bowl run as the team went on in 2007. San Francisco won the regular season meeting between the teams, but Tom Coughlin is a master of beating teams if a second matchup comes to fruition.

Prediction: New York 15, San Francisco 13

Baltimore Ravens (13-4) at New England Patriots (14-3)

The Patriots are a 7.5 favorite in this game. Seriously. The team with the second worst defense in the NFL (in terms of yards allowed) is a more than one touchdown favorite over a team with one of the best defensive units in recent memory. Sure the Ravens have some older players on their roster (Ray Lewis and Ed Reed come to mind), and their offense doesn’t have any game breaking players other than Ray Rice, but this is still the team that was 6-0 against playoff teams in the regular season (by contrast, the Patriots were 1-2). I’ll take the Ravens in a route.

Prediction: Baltimore 35, New England 17

Last Week’s Picks: 3-1
Last Week’s Picks (against the spread): 3-1

Playoff Record: 5-3
Playoff Record (against the spread): 5-3